Flat markets today. VIX at 13.62, positive on the day, same-o mixed market signals with the broad indexes up but ditto volatility. WTIC crude oil dropped through 90 on the higher inventories. Factory Orders were a non-event. The Dow Industrials dropped under yesterday's HOD. The SPX is fighting along the 1540 S/R. Remember the negative divergence on the 30-minute chart yesterday? That remains, and now the 2-hour chart is setting up with its negative divergence. This behavior should lead to a roll over for the SPX this afternoon or tomorrow. Perhaps the Beige Book contains a surprise? TRIN tells it all at 0.61 at today's lows. The broad indexes will move higher today with this low TRIN. So the bears goal is to increase the TRIN and VIX. The bulls are trying to push the SPX above 1544 and hold it since it will point the way to 1548 in quick order. Markets may stumble along sideways until the Beige Book at 2 PM. Fed's Fisher speaks this evening which will likely be a push for the hawk side. Lots of snow removal required all day long today, good ole Pennsylvania was hit hard overnight and this morning.
Note Added 3/6/13 at 2:43 PM: The Beige Book is a yawner. Retail sales are soft but traders do not care. At 2 PM, the broad indexes pivoted down but at 2:15 PM the booze was flowing again and the markets ran higher. VIX is flat today at 13.43. TRIN is 0.55, no wonder the markets are elevated, bears got nothing with a TRIN this low, the bulls will run markets higher into the close unless the TRIN rises. The bulls need to punch through 1544, a repeat of the action as the session began this morning, and hold it, if so, the path to test the strong 1548 resistance will occur quickly. The SPX 30-minute, 1-hour and 2-hour charts are set up with negative divergence now. The 2-hour may want to see SPX 1545-1546 to lock in the negativity but overall, the charts are agreeable to the SPX moving lower now. SPX should begin to drift lower from this 1543-1548 range. Here's the push above 1544 to see if the bulls want 1548, or not. Nice bounces today in mining stocks.
Note Added 3/6/13 at 3:30 PM: Keystone took profits on PBR exiting this position, will consider reentering, it should have continued upside ahead. Also took profits on REE exiting that position, will also consider reentering and it should have further upside ahead. Also shorted LL opening up a new short position.
Note Added 3/6/13 at 3:35 PM: Keystone bot AAPL opening up a new long position. Also added more JO which is the ongoing long coffee position. Also added more SJB which is the ongoing long position that shorts high-yield, this one is a bit thinly-traded but the action is healthy enough.
Note Added 3/6/13 at 3:46 PM: TRIN is 0.56 so the markets would not be expected to drop. However, with two days of low TRIN's especially a number in the 0.5's, TRIN should pop tomorrow which would be in concert with market weakness. VIX is 13.56, not going up but not going down either, holding this 13.3-13.5 support area. Note how the SPX did not have the oomph to move up through 1544 today at the open or a short time ago. The euro is 1.2988 and this action will heat up overnight into the ECB tomorrow morning before the U.S. open.
Note Added 3/6/13 at 3:55 PM: Keystone added more long AAPL.
Note Added 3/6/13 at 4:03 PM: The markets end mixed. SPX and Dow up with Nasdaq down. RUT was up. The tech weakness should be respected. Watch the semiconductors, SOX, the socks, moving forward. The inverse semi ETF, SSG, may prove an interesting long play moving forward, the daily and weekly charts are set up with positive divergence and the SOX weekly chart is negatively diverged. There is likely a few more days of flatness to slight buoyancy and then the semiconductors should roll over. VIX finishes up a few pennies at 13.52 and the mixed signals continue, an up VIX and up markets. One of them is wrong. TRIN recovered to 0.63 but looking back at the last three days, the low TRIN's should lead to a snap-back move tomorrow with a higher TRIN printing (above 1.00) and markets selling off. The upper Bollinger Band violation scenario should be watched as well, where the SPX should be lower on Friday and Monday. SPX prints a new 2013 closing high at 1541.46 and new 2013 intraday high at 1545.25. The Dow Industrials prints a new all-time closing high at 14296.24 and new all-time intraday high at 14320.65. Keystone's 80/20 rule says 8's lead to 2's so 14280 leads to 14320. Perhaps today's tag of 14320 satisfies the rule, or, price may move up to take another look at the 14320's tomorrow. The market drama continues and at 7:45 AM EST the excitement will accelerate starting with Draghi and the ECB decision, and Draghi has been known to surprise markets before so he will be pulling something out of his a...., er, sleeve. The euro is 1.2988. Now, where's that snow shovel? Well, shoveling can wait until a slice of blueberry pie is enjoyed.
Terimakasih anda telah membaca artikel tentang Keystone's Midday Market Action 3/6/13; Beige Book. Jika ingin menduplikasi artikel ini diharapkan anda untuk mencantumkan link https://protectraders.blogspot.com/2013/03/keystone-midday-market-action-3613.html. Terimakasih atas perhatiannya.