The bulls leap higher at the open with new all-time highs for the Dow Jones Industrials and new 2013 highs for the SPX. The new all-time high for the Dow is 14413.17. The new SPX intraday 2013 high is 1551.65. Everyone looking for SPX 1550 was correct; Keystone did not think the SPX would print 1550. Markets have lots of Fed momo behind them. The dollar is up today to 82.82 and the euro has fallen under 1.30, a big drop, now printing 1.2976. This places Brent oil at 110 and WTIC crude at 91.42. The 10-year yield is elevated at 2.06%. So copper and commodities are down on the stronger dollar but equities are up. The typical asset relationship continues to adjust and is not operating in sync. The VIX is under 13 verifying the bull move today. TRIN dropped to place another uber low number at 0.50 at the open but is now back up to 0.92 a smidge on the bull side (1.00 is neutral bull-bear line). Keystone took profits on the AAPL long exiting the position and will look to reenter long. Also added more to the ERY long trade.
Note Added 3/8/13 at 9:50 AM: By the time it takes to blink or pick your nose, the markets reverse the up move and sell off. Sellers entered the market after the opening pop. The VIX is back above 13 now at 13.15. TRIN catapults to 1.30 now firmly favoring the bears and the sell side today. Never a dull moment at the circus.
Note Added 3/8/13 at 10:08 AM: The up dollar = down euro = down copper = down commodities relationship is in sync. Yields would be expected to want to come down as well as the equities markets, however, the equities markets remain positive. And the VIX is positive as well now which is another mixed signal. The 10-year yield was printing higher numbers this morning at 2.07%+ and are coming down a tick or two so that direction is in sync with the relationship listed. Equity markets are the odd man out, the asset relationships say equities should be selling off but they remain positive. That says stocks are pumped by the Fed, plain and simple.
Note Added 3/8/13 at 10:16 AM: SPX slips a bit negative, ditto Nasdaq. TRIN is 1.15 helping bears but only by a smidge. If the TRIN stays at 1.15 or higher, the markets will remain flat or sell off from here forward. The market bulls need to push the TRIN under 1.00 if they want to recover today. VIX is 13.26 hanging around that 13.2-13.5 support area again. XLF is flat at 18.17 so obviously the bank stress test results were priced in ahead of time.
Note Added 3/8/13 at 11:14 AM: The VIX steadily drops over the last hour from 13.30 to 12.69. Hence, the SPX moves higher. TRIN is 1.10 continuing to favor bears. Interesting to see copper beaten but the equities markets do not care. The 2-hour and 1-hour SPX charts are negatively diverged so the assumption is that the day should develop weakness moving forward. Crude is at 91.10. The 10-year yield is 2.06%. The euro is 1.2916. The broad indexes are all positive. The SPX is playing around the strong S/R at 1548. Bulls have the upper hand above 1548, bears below.
Note Added 3/8/13 at 2:03 PM: The bulls keep the broad indexes elevated. TRIN is 1.01 so the bears lost their advantage. VIX is 12.66. The SPX HOD is 1551.65 which is a new high for 2013. The two major prior tops years ago printed a high of 1552.87 on 3/24/00 and 1576.09 on 10/11/07. Note that today's high is only 1.22 away from the 2000 market top. For this week, once the big pop occurred on Monday, the SPX is moving through a tiny ten-point range at 1540-1550. The bulls are currently winning the fight for the strong 1548 S/R and the negative divergence on the hourly charts has not yet kicked in any downside for the SPX. The negative divergence should kick in before the closing bell so it may make for a dramatic finish today. Fitch downgraded Italy which created a five-point SPX drop at lunch time but the bulls already recovered the drop. The market bears needed a down week this week since next week is typically an up week for markets well over 80% of the time (type 'March Seasonality' into the search box above to review the March seasonality factors affecting the markets). Typically, Friday afternoon buoyancy occurs as short traders pare back positions to reduce weekend risk (typically a positive event occurs over the weekend), however, these are not normal markets. Considering the fearlessness shown on the CPC put/call ratio as well as negative divergences, and ongoing European, Japan and China drama, it is likely more prudent to lighten up substantially from the long side going into this weekend. China releases data overnight tonight. The markets are susceptible to a negative event and many times the Monday's receive the wrath of these events. Any longs in the protfolio should be reviewed in the context of 'are you willing to hold that long stock for two years?' If yes, any market pull back is of no importance and if the markets drop 10% you will not be shaken, but, if you are not thrilled about maintaining a particular long position moving forward, today may be a good day to throw it overboard. Remember, cash is a position, there is nothing wrong with letting cash sit in the account as the markets sort out the drama. You may not be making money but you are not losing money either. The SPX continues the fight for 1548. Pay attention to 1552.87 as described above.
Note Added 3/8/13 at 2:42 PM: The 1, 5, 10, 15 and 30-minute charts, and 1 and 2-hour charts are almost all universally set up with negative divergence now. With 75 minutes of trading remaining, this may prove difficult for the bulls to keep the markets elevated. Things may get interesting now.
Note Added 3/8/13 at 4:02 PM: The bulls are relentless but some of the negative divergence created some price spanking in the final minutes. SPX minute and hourly charts will remain set up in favor of the bears for early next week. Interestingly, the new moon is Monday, so markets would be expected to be weak from now through Tuesday. The SPX took out the HOD today at 1551.65 and prints a new 2013 intrady high at 1552.48 and attacks THE top from March 2000 at 1552.87, but was unable to punch through, only 39 pennies away, that is interesting. The SPX closes at 1551.18. Volume is light again today. The Dow closes at a new all-time high at 14397.07 and prints a new all-time intraday high at 14413.17. The markets are fishy and now it is time for an enjoyable fish dinner at the local fire hall. The ladies have no doubt baked some tasty pies today.
Terimakasih anda telah membaca artikel tentang Keystone's Midday Market Action 3/8/13. Jika ingin menduplikasi artikel ini diharapkan anda untuk mencantumkan link https://protectraders.blogspot.com/2013/03/keystone-midday-market-action-3813.html. Terimakasih atas perhatiannya.